How likely is it that Ebay will favour my case?

[Kaleb13]

There is good news and bad news.

The good news is that if the seller can not provide documented proof of delivery, and signature confirmation since the item is over 250 dollars, then you will get a refund.

The bad news is that if he doesn't agree to do the refund, you have to escalate the case to eBay and if he says he sent it they usually will wait sometimes over two weeks with the money on hold before they give it back to you.

So yes, you will get a refund, but it kind of sucks if you really need the money to buy from someone else.