Do We Have A U.S. Physician Shortage?

[anthony d]

Will it get better or worse under ObamaCare?

[Luckyaunt089]

Obama care will cure all problems. If You have any trouble fly to cuba.

[Entropy]

According to the American Association of Medical Colleges, we face a shortfall of more than 150,000 doctors over the next 15 years. This shortfall, combined with skyrocketing demand due to demographics, third party payment, and other issues is why medical prices are skyrocketing. ObamaCare did not even attempt to solve these core issues and instead focussed on the SYMPTOM of coverage.

Estimates suggest that on average physicians are reimbursed at roughly 78% of costs under Medicare, and just 70% of costs under Medicaid. ObamaCare is going to increase the number of people on Medicare. That is how they got rid of the public option, they just assume Medicare will pick up the tab and eventually people will advocate for something better than medicare since Medicare is a lousy program.

Roughly 40% of doctors are age 55 or over. Are they really going to want to stick it out for a few more years if all they have to look forward to is more red tape (both government and insurance company) for less money? Remember, the average medical school graduate begins their career with more than $295,000 in debt.

A 2010 IBD/TPP Poll found that 45% of doctors would at least consider leaving their practices or taking early retirement as a result of the new health care law. And, an online survey by Sermo.com, a sort of Facebook for physicians, found that 26% of physicians in solo practices were considering closing

In fact, we have already seen the start of this process in Massachusetts, where Mitt Romney's health care reforms were nearly identical to President Obama's. Romney's reforms increased the demand for health care but did nothing to expand the supply of physicians. In fact, by cracking down on insurance premiums, Massachusetts pushed insurers to reduce their payments to providers, making it less worthwhile for doctors to expand their practices. As a result, the average wait to get an appointment with a doctor grew from 33 days to over 55 days.

[Monica Sardonica]

Not yet, but we will in 20 years.

Obamacare takes away any real incentive for talented students to want to pursue medicine.