How much will I make with the stocks I have in FB, I need to know?

[Bob Arum]

I'm a first timer, saw it trending on Twitter yest. @Twitter, and saw #FB was going public.. I intend to put $2,000 of money I borrowed(they can thank me later), and I don't know how much I will get, I know I have to wait years before it becomes millions, but I need cash in the near future too, so how much can I get in about 4 to 6 months max? Write @BOBARUM #YA!, Plz, 10 points, #facebookquestion

[JoeyV]

I'll bet that FB is flat to down in 4-6 months. Here's my bold prediction - FB **never** breaks $50/share.

Who want to buy forever FB 50 call options and how much would you pay? I'm selling...

Edit: And Bob...don't hurt yourself. If you can't read a 10-K you shouldn't be investing in stocks by yourself and there is no way you even know what a10-K is. Buying stocks with borrowed money is very risky for the unqualified.

[Eric]

I don't think you can make much in 4-6 months. Don't know what you paid, but if you paid 38 and you see 45-50 sell and be happy. I think FB is a long term investment requiring a 3-5 year comitment.

[sv]

There is so much in your statement that screams that you have no idea how stocks or trading works. Everything, from overconfidence, borrowing the money, needing the money back soon, wanting certain returns promised , thinking some random poster on Yahoo can provide you guarantees.

Insiders are selling like mad trying to cash out, and it is the inexperienced person buying thinking it is a sure thing and they'll get rich quick (4-6 months max, really???). If it is sure to go up, why would they sell? If you are so sure it will go up, why do you need get reassurance online.

[John W]

You have my condolences, even if we don't consider the ridiculous choice of Facebook as your ticket to riches, you're setting yourself up for a loss, you are borrowing money and you need money in the near future. Those two factors practically assure your demise.

As to the choice of Facebook, people keep comparing Facebook to Google, well Google is currently going for $600 a share at 18 times earnings, would you buy Google today at $2,899 a share today? cause that's what you're doing buying Facebook at $38 at 88 times earnings. Of course Facebook is no Google, it's more like Twitter especially since it' becoming more of a mobile app to get around corporate firewalls. The social media concept is interesting and there are some interesting potentials but they remain unexploited so far.

[MBTrader]

The odds of your making money on Facebook in the next 6 months is almost nil. There are two lockups that will expire during that time. The first at 90 days will increase the shares available by 55%, the second at 180 days will almost double the number of shares. With that many shares becoming available there is no reason for large investors to rush to accumulate shares. The most likely trajectory for the stock price in the next 6 months is flat to down. The underwriters were buying like crazy today to keep the price from falling below $38. In the coming weeks they will have no choice but to let the price drop.

The best way to predict what Facebook will do is to look at another recent IPO with a high retail participation. That was the GM IPO. GM is now trading approximately 33% below that opening day price. It wouldn't be surprising to see FB follow a similar pattern.

Your only hope is that Facebook has an upside surprise in their next earnings release. Facebook's first couple of earnings releases will be scrutinized very closely, and a beat or a miss could have drastic consequences. If you scare off the retail investors, it will be difficult to draw them back.

Congratulations for getting in on Facebook's IPO. It's something that you can tell your grandkids about. But it is very unlikely to make you rich.

[Christian]

Mr. Bob, sorry to say but you are naaive. Stock market doesn't work that way. Nobody knows what price its going to be after 6 months, and people who say otherwise are most likely trying to rip money off of you. "I know I have to wait years before it becomes millions" What kind of statement is this. There have been many stocks which was promising when it went public, but many have went bankrupt. I am not saying FB will go bankrupt, but don't predict your future. Its a bad way to do business.
First lesson in investing is, don't invest more than you can afford to loose. If you don't get good sleep at night. It basically means that you are not comfortable with the amount of money you've invested. This all sound too harsh I know, but I'm giving you a good advise here.